Strange Thoughts on the GOP

What is happening? After a strange summer of Tea Parties, boisterous talk/TV show hosts, and the GOP losing then finding their way, things still strike me as very odd. First, if I were a moderate Republican (e.g., Snowe or Collins), and I saw the moves being made by the far, far right, I would be a little more than nervous. Politics, of course, are a strange game with even stranger, unpredictable events. Ironically, the most pragmatic institutional actors -- political entrepreneurs -- are also the most difficult to pin down when you think you understand their moves.

Take the NY-23 (don't you hate the media's cute way of short-handing things that than get picked up and become politico-speak?) race. A Republican is tossed out for being 'more liberal' than her opponent to make room for someone far more conservative than your average New York Republican. You would think people like Gingrich and Fred Thompson would be less than optimistic about these turn of events because it indicates a very possible GOP strategy for 2010 and beyond: exile the moderates and bring in the hardliners. But, no; in the face of this strange coup, the GOP has thrown its full support behind Hoffman. Now it is plausible to suggest a win is a win; in an off-year election with really only two governor races, even small victories appear magnified on their own.

The summer and the fall cast this possibility into doubt. The GOP has been moving to consolidate and play to its base, which is the only excited or excitable dimension of the GOP. The country, for the first time in a long time, identifies less as republicans than as democrats; Obama's campaign and internet success increased the number of democrats in the electorate...but, more people identify as being conservative than before (there are some doubts, by the way, that these surveys are useful because the word "conservative" is confusing to respondents. Are we talking fiscally, socially, or militarily conservative? Different wording produces different effects). Moreover, the two governor races look dangerously Republican in outcome.

Thus, what shocks me is despite the purges and the efforts to make the right far righter, the McCain's, Snowe's, and Boehner's stand strong with the GOP. Being more moderate than anything, I almost wish and feel like the center-right and center-left should ally and form a moderate party. A third-party with real candidates and good fundraising abilities may be a nice counterweight to the intensely partisan way of doing politics...